Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa163…c345 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate25%9W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% $0
other 22% $0
politics 16% $0
crypto 5% $0
sports 3% −$1
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 +4.4% -5.5% 22% 11% -9.6%
≤90d 9 +4.4% -5.5% 22% 11% -9.6%
all 36 -1.3% -10.7% 25% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 6% -9.7%
10% -19.3% 3% -18.4%
15% -27.1% 3% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses9 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage447d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $61 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +41%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $4 $0 -3%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 26 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 08 $6 $0 -4%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6? Jun 05 $10 $0 -4%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Po May 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polis May 16 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 15 $13 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will any candidate win outright in 1st round of Poland Election? May 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 09 $13 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 08 $12 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $13 $0 -1%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $13 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $33 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $30 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $6 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $24 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $16 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $10 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $21 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $34 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $34 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 60¢ $31 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $5 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $26 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.86 · official $32.87 (match) · 103 history records