Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:05:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A1
0xa168…9fa5
other · 121 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$55 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$55 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$43
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses23 / 97
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage95d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 120 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$24
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $329 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $29 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $44 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $328 −$2 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $36 +$1 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 10 $51 −$2 -5%
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 10 $3 $0 +4%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 09 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $48 +$1 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $628 −$4 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $329 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 07 $105 −$2 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $9 $0 -4%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $36 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $61 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $54 −$1 -3%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $106 −$2 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $241 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $257 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $98 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $566 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $304 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $42 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $163 −$1 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $47 −$1 -2%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 23 $51 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 23 $147 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 22 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $66 −$1 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 22 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 21 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 21 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 21 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 21 $52 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 30% −$15
other 29% −$18
sports 16% −$6
crypto 7% −$6
finance 6% −$2
economics 4% −$4
world 4% −$1
culture 2% −$1
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 1h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $42 2h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $42 6h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $49 6h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 14h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $29 14h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $29 19h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $45 20h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $45 27h
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $53 28h
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $54 32h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 97¢ $44 32h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $44 39h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $52 40h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $53 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $36 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 92¢ $48 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $51 2d
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo SELL No 95¢ $3 2d
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY No 91¢ $3 2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $46 2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $46 2d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 98¢ $58 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 96¢ $48 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $48 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $42 5d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $43 5d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $44 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 61 -0.7% -10.2% 13% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 115 -0.4% -9.9% 19% 0% -9.8%
all 120 -0.4% -9.9% 19% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.56 · official $42.56 (match) · 440 history records