Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:31:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A1
0xa16a…33a1
sports · 495 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$86,511 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$86,618 · open −$107
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$627
Realized+$86,618
Unrealized−$107
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses490 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions4
Markets (closed)491 / 495
Avg bet$4,468
Trades / day643.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 4 History 491 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,549
7 days+$86,618
14 days+$86,618
30 days+$86,618
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $514 $513 −$2 (-0%)
Farzami vs. Aksu: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $105 $52 −$52 (-50%)
Farzami vs. Aksu: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $105 $52 −$52 (-50%)
Game 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Odd 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 12, 12AM ET? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 12, 12AM ET? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Bielinska vs. Mi: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $182 +$2 +1%
Set 2 Winner: Bielinska vs Mi Jun 12 $182 +$2 +1%
Bielinska vs. Mi: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $182 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 5AM ET? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 12AM ET? Jun 12 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 12, 12AM ET? Jun 12 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,660 on June 12, 12AM ET? Jun 12 $150 $0 +0%
Eom Jisung: 1+ goals Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 11, 11PM ET? Jun 12 $161 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 11, 11PM ET? Jun 12 $76 $0 +0%
HYPE Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 12 $190 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51,948 +$52 +0%
Game 1: Any Player Quadra Kill? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $52,507 +$53 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $85 $0 +0%
Pete Crow-Armstrong: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Dansby Swanson: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Ian Happ: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Michael Busch: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Moisés Ballesteros: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $119,880 +$120 +0%
Game 2: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 11 $25 $0 +2%
César Huerta: 1+ goals Jun 11 $1,608 +$16 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $88 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Natus Vincere (+6.5) Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-9.5) vs Natus Vincere (+9.5) Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-12.5) vs Natus Vincere (+12.5) Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) Jun 11 $1,268 +$1 +0%
Tucuman: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 11 $412 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intel Jun 11 $101 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Amaryllis Fox Kennedy as the next Director of Nati Jun 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Derek Harvey as the next Director of National Inte Jun 11 $62 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Tom Cotton as the next Director of National Intell Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce John Eisenberg as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Robert O’Brien as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $101 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Mike Waltz as the next Director of National Intell Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Mike Flynn as the next Director of National Intell Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Sebastian Gorka as the next Director of National I Jun 11 $108 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Devin Nunes as the next Director of National Intel Jun 11 $101 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Stephen Miller as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $124 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kash Patel as the next Director of National Intell Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Stacey Dixon as the next Director of National Inte Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $350 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 89% +$70,995
other 6% +$15,383
crypto 3% +$77
world 1% +$31
culture 1% +$18
tech 0% +$5
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 3m
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 3m
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $500 4m
Farzami vs. Aksu: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $105 5m
Farzami vs. Aksu: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $105 5m
Bielinska vs. Mi: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $182 1h
Bielinska vs. Mi: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 99¢ $182 1h
Set 2 Winner: Bielinska vs Mi BUY Mi 99¢ $182 1h
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 5AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Eom Jisung: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $30 6h
Ethereum above 1,660 on June 12, 12AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 6h
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 12, 12AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 12AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $105 6h
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 12, 12AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 12, 12AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 6h
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 11, 11PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $161 7h
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 11, 11PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $76 7h
HYPE Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $190 10h
Dansby Swanson: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $50 12h
Ian Happ: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $50 12h
Michael Busch: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $50 12h
Moisés Ballesteros: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $50 12h
Pete Crow-Armstrong: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $50 12h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,996 12h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,996 12h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,996 12h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,996 12h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,996 12h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,996 12h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,996 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 491 +10.3% -0.2% 100% 3% -6.0%
≤30d 491 +10.3% -0.2% 100% 3% -6.0%
≤90d 491 +10.3% -0.2% 100% 3% -6.0%
all 491 +10.3% -0.2% 100% 3% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover643.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.2% 3% -6.0%
10% -9.7% 2% -15.0%
15% ← realistic here -18.5% 2% -23.2%
20% -26.4% 2% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $627.49 · official $627.49 (match) · 3500 history records