Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa173…c7ea world 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%16W / 40L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$1
other 17% $0
politics 7% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 13 -6.9% -15.7% 54% 8% -9.1%
≤90d 13 -6.9% -15.7% 54% 8% -9.1%
all 56 -1.8% -11.2% 29% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 2% -9.4%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.0%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses16 / 40
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage273d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 66¢ 64¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $128 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $54 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $170 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $7 −$1 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $39 +$2 +4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $5 +$1 +17%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $5 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $18 $0 -3%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 31 $4 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Jan 31 $28 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 09 $4 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 07 $5 $0 -2%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $15 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 30 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Sep 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 23 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $1 $0 -5%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 22 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $50 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $50 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $48 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $2 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $18 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $50 30h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $17 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $38 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $55 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $31 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $15 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $16 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $54 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $54 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $5 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $44 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $48 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $55 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $55 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.74 · official $48.26 (match) · 194 history records