Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:36:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa177…4b0d sports 292 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$352 (-2%) realized −$288 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%88W / 202L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$373est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$216
7 days+$216
14 days+$613
30 days+$1,582
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$423
crypto 13% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -9.5% -18.1% 33% 33% +22.9%
≤30d 177 +7.3% -2.9% 34% 34% +5.0%
≤90d 290 -3.3% -12.5% 30% 30% -11.3%
all 290 -3.3% -12.5% 30% 30% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 30% -11.3%
10% -20.9% 30% -19.8%
15% -28.5% 30% -27.5%
20% -35.5% 30% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$64 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$288
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses88 / 202
Est. fees paid−$373
Open positions2
Markets (closed)290 / 292
History coverage78d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Laslo Djere 21¢ 22¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Arthur Fery 42¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 190 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -97%
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle Jun 19 $41 −$40 -97%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $153 +$211 +138%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 19 $102 +$192 +188%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $60 −$59 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $56 +$106 +188%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $14 −$13 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $62 −$61 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$17 +190%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $22 −$22 -97%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 09 $25 −$3 -10%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $102 +$231 +226%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz Jun 09 $52 −$50 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $61 +$93 +152%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $63 +$261 +414%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $84 +$128 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 06 $36 −$34 -94%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $204 −$200 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $102 +$239 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 06 $19 −$18 -94%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Jun 06 $69 +$52 +74%
ITF Cuiaba: Mateus Alves vs Nick Hardt Jun 05 $25 −$25 -98%
ITF Caltanissetta: Giorgio Tabacco vs Massimo Giunta Jun 05 $83 −$81 -98%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Viola Turini Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Alina Charaeva Jun 04 $103 −$100 -97%
ITF Caltanissetta: Jay Clarke vs Giorgio Tabacco Jun 04 $82 +$319 +389%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 04 $38 −$37 -96%
Makarska: Lola Radivojevic vs Mia Ristic Jun 04 $51 +$176 +344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 03 $14 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 03 $26 −$25 -96%
Valencia vs. Bilbao Basket Jun 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Birmingham: Ugo Blanchet vs Felix Gill Jun 03 $102 +$220 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 03 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 03 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 03 $26 +$38 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 03 $52 +$70 +135%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Doosan Bears Jun 03 $122 −$18 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 03 $26 −$25 -97%
ITF Wuning: Yanan Hou vs Kyoka Okamura Jun 03 $119 +$354 +298%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $107 −$105 -98%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $108 −$106 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $50 −$49 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $67 −$65 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Laslo Djere 21¢ $49 11m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 42¢ $66 33m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Arthur Fery 73¢ $115 42m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 42¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $19 1h
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle BUY Kyrian Jacquet 6¢ $41 1h
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 11¢ $103 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva SELL Alina Charaeva 100¢ $363 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 41¢ $153 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku SELL Yeon-Woo Ku 100¢ $294 2h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 42¢ $60 4h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 34¢ $102 4h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $162 4h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 27¢ $10 5h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 19¢ $3 5h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 34¢ $56 5h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 22¢ $62 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $27 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $9 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 13¢ $46 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $19 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $22 9d
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics SELL Marton Fucsovics 17¢ $22 9d
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 18¢ $25 9d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Katie Boulter 100¢ $333 10d
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz BUY Samsung Lions 24¢ $52 10d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Katie Boulter 30¢ $102 10d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 39¢ $61 10d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $212 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.22 · official $49.22 (match) · 481 history records