Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A1 0xa177…d3c1 crypto 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,689 (-14%) realized −$924 · open −$765
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%16W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$2,891
sports 13% −$660
other 5% −$575
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -40.0% -45.7% 19% 19% -46.7%
≤30d 72 -34.9% -41.1% 22% 22% -38.1%
≤90d 72 -34.9% -41.1% 22% 22% -38.1%
all 72 -34.9% -41.1% 22% 22% -38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 22% -38.1%
10% -46.7% 22% -44.0%
15% -51.9% 22% -49.4%
20% -56.6% 22% -54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$300 vs −$146 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized−$924
Unrealized−$765
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses16 / 56
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage26d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 28¢ 8¢ $1,098 $333 −$765 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $269 −$257 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $264 −$250 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $263 −$250 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $236 −$225 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $524 −$500 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $304 −$290 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $241 −$230 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 29 $54 −$51 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 29 $158 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $209 +$355 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 29 $262 −$250 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $136 −$130 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 29 $127 +$286 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $209 +$329 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $118 −$113 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $209 +$346 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 29 $210 +$531 +253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $157 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 29 $211 +$609 +289%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 29 $210 −$200 -95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $585 −$575 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $107 −$102 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $383 −$365 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $226 −$216 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $126 −$120 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $147 −$140 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $263 +$630 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $158 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $131 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $157 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$77 +290%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$184 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$159 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$189 +181%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 28¢ $5 56m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 28¢ $1,116 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $211 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $209 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $211 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $209 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $157 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $157 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $280 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $209 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $53 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.26 · official $333.26 (match) · 166 history records