Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:17:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A1 0xa177…6e84 sports 227 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10,331 (-4%) realized −$10,641 · open +$310
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate69%154W / 70L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,127per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$176est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5,270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days−$47
14 days+$1,476
30 days+$2,639
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$5,372
world 9% −$4,504
politics 4% +$77
other 2% −$590
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.1% -7.6% 60% 60% -11.1%
≤30d 13 +11.6% +1.0% 85% 62% +0.9%
≤90d 27 +13.8% +2.9% 85% 59% +0.8%
all 224 +7.8% -2.5% 69% 46% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 46% -13.4%
10% -11.8% 39% -21.7%
15% -20.3% 36% -29.2%
20% -28.1% 33% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$1,492) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$450 vs −$1,143 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$5,270
Realized−$10,641
Unrealized+$310
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses154 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$176
Open positions3
Markets (closed)224 / 227
History coverage472d
Avg bet$1,127
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $3,000 $3,172 +$172 (+6%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,096 +$96 (+10%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $960 $1,001 +$41 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $101 +$91 +90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $706 −$700 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $402 −$400 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $384 +$183 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,064 +$779 +73%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 18 $4,355 +$1,029 +24%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 16 $6,370 +$135 +2%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $1,479 +$359 +24%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 11 $1,819 +$361 +20%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) Jun 11 $1,373 +$346 +25%
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by May 31? Jun 10 $100 +$26 +26%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 10 $1,061 +$109 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Jun 10 $3,688 +$321 +9%
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by April 30? May 01 $890 +$246 +28%
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by April 30? May 01 $1,000 +$163 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,353 +$36 +3%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H Moneyline Apr 26 $100 −$2 -2%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Apr 22 $100 −$98 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Apr 20 $98 +$107 +109%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 13 $200 +$172 +86%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $700 +$155 +22%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $2,000 +$50 +2%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $713 +$136 +19%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31? Apr 04 $500 +$83 +17%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $1,000 +$124 +12%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 31 $1,492 +$23 +2%
Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election? Mar 30 $1,000 +$61 +6%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers: O/U 147.5 Mar 26 $450 −$448 -100%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa Mar 26 $1,000 +$163 +16%
Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5) Mar 23 $100 +$100 +100%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Electi Mar 23 $1,000 +$76 +8%
Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 239.5 Mar 13 $100 +$96 +96%
Canadiens vs. Senators: O/U 6.5 Mar 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 11 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5 Mar 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentar Mar 10 $200 +$133 +67%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? Mar 10 $1,674 +$79 +5%
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Mar 09 $1,000 +$140 +14%
Omaha Mavericks vs. South Dakota Coyotes: O/U 151.5 Mar 08 $150 +$143 +95%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins Mar 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Evansville Aces vs. Northern Iowa Panthers: O/U 128.5 Mar 07 $150 +$137 +92%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 05 $1,200 +$137 +11%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Mar 04 $265 +$177 +67%
Spread: Hornets (-13.5) Mar 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) Mar 02 $285 −$285 -100%
Spread: Ducks (-1.5) Mar 02 $252 +$165 +65%
Pelicans vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5 Mar 02 $1,000 +$6 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $6,060 −$6,060 -100%
Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5 Mar 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Lightning vs. Hurricanes Feb 27 $100 +$72 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $422 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $543 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $101 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $303 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $404 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $402 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $1,064 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $384 6d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 80¢ $4,355 9d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 75¢ $6,505 10d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 72¢ $1,066 11d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 72¢ $2,652 11d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 72¢ $2,652 11d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Emma Raducanu 80¢ $1,479 13d
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife BUY Barcelona 83¢ $1,819 15d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) BUY Athletics 79¢ $1,373 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $3,688 56d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,353 61d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H Moneyline BUY Raptors 50¢ $100 64d
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 49¢ $100 65d
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 47¢ $98 68d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $3,000 72d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $100 72d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 85¢ $500 75d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 74¢ $200 76d
Hawks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 97¢ $1,000 79d
Hawks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 98¢ $1,000 79d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 53¢ $200 79d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the BUY Yes 91¢ $1,061 88d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 84¢ $713 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,269.52 · official $5,257.81 (match) · 501 history records