Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:58:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A1 0xa178…11a2 sports 2223 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,784 (-4%) realized −$7,695 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%1106W / 1176L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Fees−$974est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 118d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$1,049
other 34% −$1,685
crypto 0% −$173
world 0% +$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 226 -55.6% -59.8% 23% 23% -47.6%
≤30d 565 -15.3% -23.4% 46% 46% -17.2%
≤90d 1723 -10.9% -19.4% 48% 48% -15.1%
all 2282 -9.4% -18.0% 48% 48% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 48% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 48% -22.9%
15% -33.0% 43% -30.3%
20% -39.6% 32% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$76 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$7,695
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses1106 / 1176
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$974
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2282 / 2223
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$97
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2282 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 22¢ $150 $61 −$89 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-01-13? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Celtics vs. Heat Jun 17 $132 −$132 -100%
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-01-03? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Mali win on 2025-12-22? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2025-12-19? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-01-01? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-01-31? Jun 17 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-01-16? Jun 17 $278 −$278 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Celtics vs. Trail Blazers Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-02-15? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will VfL Bochum win on 2025-12-20? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will CA Talleres win on 2026-02-09? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC København win on 2026-01-20? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Perth Glory FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
US Cremonese vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Delray Beach Open: Nuno Borges vs Coleman Wong Jun 17 $134 −$134 -100%
Pumas de la UNAM vs. Club León FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Perth Glory FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-01-28? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-01-23? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-01-02? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-12? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Al Hazem SC win on 2026-01-22? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Tijuana: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Pumas de la UNAM vs. Club Santos Laguna: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-30? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $119 −$119 -100%
Wild vs. Oilers Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Karlsruher SC vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2025-12-25? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-12-21? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Commanders vs. Eagles Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-01-29? Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-01-25? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will CF América win on 2026-01-14? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-22? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-02-06? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
FC København vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-02-13? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-13? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02? Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20? Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-14? Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $152 59m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $202 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 46¢ $102 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $145 3h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $288 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $172 3h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $152 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 58¢ $191 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $199 4h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $79 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $165 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $503 5h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 5h
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $65 10h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $121 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $71 18h
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $144 18h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $67 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $51 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $178 21h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 85¢ $120 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $300 21h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $76 22h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 53¢ $76 22h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $166 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.85 · official $60.85 (match) · 3500 history records