Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:52:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa178…51b3 sports 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 563d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,314 (-45%) realized −$1,310 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%34W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$291
7 days−$1,080
14 days−$1,068
30 days−$1,068
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$912
other 45% −$422
world 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 -61.3% -65.0% 29% 29% -77.6%
≤90d 11 -43.6% -49.0% 36% 36% -76.5%
all 74 -16.6% -24.5% 46% 45% -54.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 45% -54.8%
10% -31.7% 45% -59.1%
15% -38.3% 41% -63.1%
20% -44.4% 36% -66.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$45 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

563d coverage
Net worth$282
Realized−$1,310
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses34 / 40
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage563d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 35¢ 34¢ $287 $282 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $296 −$291 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $226 −$223 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $259 −$253 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 15 $316 −$314 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $258 +$75 +29%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $13 +$6 +42%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 10 $70 −$68 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 16 $21 −$21 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? May 16 $11 +$9 +83%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-06? Apr 12 $12 +$8 +67%
Will Norway win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $44 −$44 -100%
Magic vs. Hornets Mar 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Miami Open: Solana Sierra vs Jaqueline Cristian Mar 19 $50 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Bucks Mar 08 $49 −$49 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-26? Mar 08 $33 +$91 +270%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-19? Feb 26 $40 +$30 +75%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-13? Feb 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Jets vs. Devils Jan 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 18 $100 −$50 -50%
Flyers vs. Sabres Jan 17 $25 +$20 +79%
Senators vs. Utah Jan 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Jan 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Valencia win on 2025-09-30? Jan 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jan 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26? Jan 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Avalanche vs. Predators Jan 07 $23 −$23 -100%
Stars vs. Rangers Jan 07 $23 −$23 -100%
Clemson vs. Louisville Jan 07 $31 −$31 -100%
Bruins vs. Ducks Nov 26 $26 +$16 +61%
Canadiens vs. Devils Nov 14 $12 +$8 +70%
Timberwolves vs. Hornets Nov 06 $19 +$12 +61%
Sharks vs. Utah Oct 31 $15 +$7 +43%
Timberwolves vs. Knicks Oct 12 $9 +$5 +61%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-27? Sep 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Dodgers vs. Pirates Sep 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-21? Sep 27 $12 +$4 +30%
Sam Houston vs. Hawai'i Sep 15 $9 +$4 +41%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Sep 02 $18 −$18 -100%
Diamondbacks vs. Athletics Sep 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Braves vs. Phillies Sep 02 $11 +$6 +56%
Reds vs. Angels Aug 29 $11 +$9 +75%
Cubs vs. Blue Jays Aug 19 $11 +$10 +85%
Guardians vs. White Sox Aug 12 $14 +$12 +82%
Brewers vs. Mariners Aug 03 $9 +$8 +85%
Blue Jays vs. White Sox Jul 17 $10 +$6 +54%
Brewers vs. Mets Jul 08 $9 +$6 +70%
Twins vs. Tigers Jul 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Twins vs. Reds Jul 03 $10 +$8 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $292 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $296 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $226 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $259 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $316 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $258 8d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $70 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $13 10d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 64¢ $21 35d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 69d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-06? BUY No 59¢ $12 74d
Will Norway win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 50¢ $44 81d
Magic vs. Hornets BUY Magic 36¢ $32 93d
Miami Open: Solana Sierra vs Jaqueline Cristian BUY Solana Sierra 50¢ $50 95d
Magic vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 35¢ $49 103d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-26? BUY No 27¢ $33 113d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-19? BUY No 57¢ $40 121d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-13? BUY Yes 70¢ $8 126d
Jets vs. Devils BUY Devils 54¢ $19 144d
Rams vs. Bears BUY Bears 36¢ $25 152d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes $50 152d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes $100 153d
Flyers vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 56¢ $25 156d
Senators vs. Utah BUY Senators 48¢ $21 163d
Avalanche vs. Predators BUY Avalanche 67¢ $23 192d
Stars vs. Rangers BUY Stars 55¢ $23 200d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26? BUY No 57¢ $19 206d
Bruins vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 62¢ $26 212d
Clemson vs. Louisville BUY Louisville 55¢ $31 218d
Canadiens vs. Devils BUY Devils 59¢ $12 226d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.47 · official $282.56 (match) · 137 history records