Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:14:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A1 0xa179…efcc crypto 140 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$41 (+1%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate84%117W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day34.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$18
sports 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 +2.3% -7.4% 84% 39% -8.8%
≤30d 140 +2.3% -7.4% 84% 39% -8.8%
≤90d 140 +2.3% -7.4% 84% 39% -8.8%
all 140 +2.3% -7.4% 84% 39% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 39% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 20% -17.6%
15% -24.4% 10% -25.5%
20% -31.8% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$18 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses117 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)140 / 140
History coverage6d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day34.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 140 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$13 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$26 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$19 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$32 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$20 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$24 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $163 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $61 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $27 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $58 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $52 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $54 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 304 history records