Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa179…eb0a crypto 1433 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (257 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,440 (+68%) realized +$2,440 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate65%1019W / 537L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day256.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (257 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1119 -11.5% -19.9% 65% 44% -34.8%
≤30d 1556 -10.8% -19.3% 65% 45% -30.7%
≤90d 1556 -10.8% -19.3% 65% 45% -30.7%
all 1556 -10.8% -19.3% 65% 45% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover256.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 45% -30.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 26% -37.4%
15% -34.1% 14% -43.4%
20% -40.5% 9% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$2,440
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses1019 / 537
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1556 / 1433
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day256.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1556 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Down 89¢ 84¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 385 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.85 · official $2.58 (match) · 3500 history records