Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:56:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa179…258e sports 143 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$364 (+2%) realized +$452 · open −$88
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate59%82W / 58L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$117
7 days−$117
14 days−$147
30 days−$645
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$494
other 37% −$225
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -37.4% -43.3% 38% 12% -48.0%
≤30d 17 -41.0% -46.6% 35% 12% -33.5%
≤90d 75 -33.2% -39.6% 40% 11% -10.9%
all 140 -12.0% -20.4% 59% 19% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 19% -7.8%
10% -28.0% 17% -16.7%
15% -35.0% 9% -24.7%
20% -41.4% 7% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$28 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized+$452
Unrealized−$88
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses82 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions2
Markets (closed)140 / 143
History coverage103d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 Over 87¢ 75¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 20¢ $129 $55 −$74 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $102 −$18 -18%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $1 $0 +6%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $60 +$10 +17%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $108 −$105 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1 $0 -10%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $141 −$139 -99%
Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $590 −$35 -6%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $375 −$370 -99%
Will Montevideo City Torque win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $509 +$51 +10%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $506 +$4 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $237 +$5 +2%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $86 +$34 +39%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $272 +$51 +19%
FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5 Apr 22 $1 −$1 -99%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $33 +$63 +191%
Will UD Almería vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? Apr 19 $125 +$9 +8%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 19 $1 +$1 +116%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 Apr 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5 Apr 19 $884 +$31 +4%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Score Apr 19 $1,001 +$8 +1%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-04-17? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
CR Flamengo vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 4.5 Apr 17 $10 $0 +2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 16 $1 $0 -2%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Leylah Fernandez vs Zeynep Sonmez Apr 16 $5 $0 +7%
LDU de Quito vs. Mirassol FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Independiente Medellín vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 3.5 Apr 16 $0 $0 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Santos FC vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Apr 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to Score Apr 16 $1 $0 -32%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $228 +$232 +102%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $1,580 +$137 +9%
CA Juventud vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 2.5 Apr 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Will CA Juventud vs. CS Cienciano end in a draw? Apr 09 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Academia Puerto Cabello win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $68 −$17 -25%
Club Blooming vs. CA River Plate: O/U 1.5 Apr 09 $3 $0 +3%
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5 Apr 09 $10 $0 +3%
CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5 Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 36¢ $84 6m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $102 7m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $100 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $1 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $71 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $20 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $10 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $30 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 94¢ $1 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 17¢ $102 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 SELL Over 60¢ $1 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $3 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $1 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $18 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $4 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $1 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $3 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $2 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $2 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $0 9d
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 11d
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 11d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes $21 21d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.95 · official $140.95 (match) · 468 history records