Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:40:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa17c…2a9a other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 38L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$341per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$8
other 29% −$6
sports 21% −$13
culture 5% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 39 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 39 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$692) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage77d
Avg bet$341
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $1,320 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,303 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,224 −$2 -0%
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,278 −$2 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,285 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $1,259 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 14 $145 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Jun 14 $154 $0 -0%
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $165 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $78 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? May 20 $19 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 15 $695 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 13 $28 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 13 $692 −$2 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $718 −$10 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 11? May 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Serbia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 12 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Atlanta United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 12 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 07 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $66 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 03 $96 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 03 $28 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $59 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $89 1h
Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $73 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 1h
Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $16 2h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 2h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 2h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 2h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $26 2h
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,318 2d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,269 2d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $216 2d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 2d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $25 2d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $903 2d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $26 2d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $319 2d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,224 2d
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 3d
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 3d
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 3d
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,276 3d
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 3d
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,254 3d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $937 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records