Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa17f…fe46 other 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$159 (-9%) realized −$84 · open −$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate24%13W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$534now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$74
14 days−$17
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$43
sports 16% −$99
crypto 2% +$8
politics 2% −$20
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -19.7% -27.3% 35% 18% -0.6%
≤30d 47 -27.4% -34.3% 26% 19% -12.9%
≤90d 54 -33.6% -39.9% 24% 19% -16.5%
all 54 -33.6% -39.9% 24% 19% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.9% 19% -16.5%
10% -45.6% 19% -24.5%
15% -50.9% 19% -31.8%
20% -55.7% 15% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$8 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$534
Realized−$84
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses13 / 41
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions14
Markets (closed)54 / 68
History coverage34d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $99 $122 +$22 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $106 $91 −$15 (-14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $116 $73 −$44 (-38%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $75 $52 −$23 (-31%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $32 $41 +$8 (+26%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $31 $40 +$10 (+32%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+22%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+14%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 4¢ 1¢ $29 $9 −$20 (-70%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-65%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $145 +$4 +3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $99 +$47 +48%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $80 +$4 +5%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$13 -83%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $112 +$2 +2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 17 $6 $0 -1%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$12 +80%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 15 $96 −$6 -7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$15 -49%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $72 +$67 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 15 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $44 −$44 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -12%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 $0 -11%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 −$3 -11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $8 +$21 +266%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 05 $8 −$8 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $12 +$8 +67%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) May 25 $9 +$11 +124%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner May 25 $20 +$10 +50%
Roland Garros WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Eva Lys May 25 $34 −$31 -91%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Patrick Kypson May 25 $10 $0 -3%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $14 +$36 +250%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $6 +$14 +226%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $11 −$11 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Jaqueline Cristian May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone May 22 $16 −$15 -99%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $17 −$17 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 59m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $145 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 19h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $90 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 95¢ $80 19h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 45h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 46h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $112 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 35¢ $90 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 47¢ $15 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $533.88 · official $534.27 (match) · 149 history records