Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:15:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa182…3106 sports 1245 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,110 (-1%) realized −$1,108 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate64%800W / 443L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$1,023est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$23
14 days−$742
30 days−$1,987
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$2,568
other 2% +$328
crypto 1% −$169
world 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -1.2% -10.6% 68% 53% -4.8%
≤30d 335 -6.1% -15.1% 63% 52% -16.7%
≤90d 989 -3.7% -12.9% 62% 56% -11.9%
all 1243 -2.9% -12.2% 64% 56% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 56% -11.7%
10% -20.6% 40% -20.2%
15% -28.3% 28% -27.9%
20% -35.3% 18% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$66 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$1,108
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses800 / 443
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$1,023
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1243 / 1245
History coverage133d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 60¢ 40¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-34%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 225 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero Jun 26 $7 +$3 +36%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Ayla Aksu vs Anna Kubareva Jun 26 $26 +$5 +17%
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 26 $15 −$9 -57%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Elena Micic vs Carolyn Ansari Jun 26 $19 +$4 +18%
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Petr Nesterov Jun 26 $20 +$3 +15%
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 26 $16 −$12 -77%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Joaquin Aguilar Jun 26 $14 +$7 +52%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes Jun 26 $19 +$5 +26%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka Jun 26 $19 +$5 +24%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $9 −$9 -98%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic Jun 26 $13 −$11 -83%
ITF Kamen: Anastasiia Firman vs Eva Marie Voracek Jun 26 $19 +$13 +69%
ITF Wuning: Dong Ju Kim vs Max Purcell Jun 26 $19 +$2 +9%
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm Jun 26 $30 +$1 +3%
ITF Maanshan: Evialina Laskevich vs JiaYi Wang Jun 26 $16 +$2 +12%
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 26 $3 $0 +13%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -99%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Anna Kubareva vs Aliona Falei Jun 25 $5 +$22 +420%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $16 +$3 +20%
Plovdiv: Petr Nesterov vs Tommaso Compagnucci Jun 25 $25 +$3 +10%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Robin Montgomer Jun 25 $19 +$1 +6%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Otto Virtanen Jun 25 $17 +$3 +18%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 25 $16 +$3 +20%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 25 $14 +$5 +34%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Martin Krumich Jun 25 $13 +$2 +18%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $11 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Wushuang Zheng vs JiaYi Wang Jun 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro Jun 24 $3 −$3 -99%
ITF Kayseri: Giulia Alessia Monteleone vs Jana Hossam Salah Jun 24 $3 −$1 -20%
ITF Slovenska Bistrica: Jonas Gundacker vs Aljaz Jeran Jun 24 $1 $0 +5%
ITF Maanshan: Anna Snigireva vs Rinko Matsuda Jun 24 $7 −$6 -89%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $3 +$1 +17%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $2 $0 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $52 −$51 -99%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $26 −$26 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $51 +$5 +10%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $52 +$29 +57%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $17 +$2 +12%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $52 −$51 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 60¢ $6 10m
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero SELL Luciana Moyano 99¢ $10 1h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Ayla Aksu vs Anna Kubareva SELL Ayla Aksu 100¢ $31 1h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Ayla Aksu vs Anna Kubareva BUY Ayla Aksu 85¢ $26 2h
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida SELL Joaquin Aguilar 12¢ $1 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $3 3h
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 56¢ $7 3h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Luciana Moyano 72¢ $7 3h
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida SELL Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 44¢ $5 3h
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 69¢ $8 3h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Elena Micic vs Carolyn Ansari SELL Carolyn Ansari 58¢ $10 4h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Elena Micic vs Carolyn Ansari BUY Carolyn Ansari 40¢ $7 4h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Elena Micic vs Carolyn Ansari SELL Elena Micic 81¢ $13 4h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Elena Micic vs Carolyn Ansari BUY Elena Micic 76¢ $12 4h
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Petr Nesterov SELL Sandro Kopp 100¢ $23 5h
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Petr Nesterov BUY Sandro Kopp 86¢ $20 7h
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Matias Soto 14¢ $4 7h
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Matias Soto 58¢ $16 7h
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Joaquin Aguilar SELL Joaquin Aguilar 100¢ $22 8h
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Joaquin Aguilar BUY Joaquin Aguilar 65¢ $14 9h
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes SELL Inaki Montes 100¢ $24 9h
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes BUY Inaki Montes 79¢ $19 10h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka SELL Naomi Osaka 100¢ $24 10h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 80¢ $19 12h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 48¢ $9 12h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic SELL Andrej Nedic $2 12h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic BUY Andrej Nedic 50¢ $13 13h
ITF Kamen: Anastasiia Firman vs Eva Marie Voracek SELL Anastasiia Firman 86¢ $33 14h
ITF Kamen: Anastasiia Firman vs Eva Marie Voracek BUY Anastasiia Firman 50¢ $19 15h
ITF Wuning: Dong Ju Kim vs Max Purcell SELL Max Purcell 100¢ $21 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.74 · official $6.34 (match) · 2618 history records