Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:14:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa183…3bce other 275 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 263L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$21
14 days−$31
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$45
sports 27% −$25
politics 10% −$10
economics 6% −$6
culture 5% −$6
world 3% −$3
crypto 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 274 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 263
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)274 / 275
History coverage145d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 274 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $373 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $712 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $185 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $1,092 −$3 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $307 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $174 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $1,015 −$2 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $290 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $442 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $442 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $409 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $236 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $56 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $143 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $368 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $268 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $206 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $330 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $665 −$2 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $159 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 09 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $229 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $439 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $161 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $345 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $307 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 1h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 2h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 3h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 11h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 12h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 15h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 16h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 17h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 18h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 21h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 22h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $53 27h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 29h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 33h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $53 34h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 36h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 38h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 39h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 41h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $53 42h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $53 43h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 45h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 46h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.34 · official $52.34 (match) · 1556 history records