Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa184…9441 politics 37 markets active 3d ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 36L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$440per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$9
other 31% −$5
economics 16% −$3
crypto 7% −$4
world 2% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 37 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 37 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$833) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage78d
Avg bet$440
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general el Jun 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,001 −$2 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,019 −$2 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $1,023 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Félix Auger-Aliassime be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,086 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,131 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $972 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $28 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $833 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS? Apr 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $748 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $807 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 15 $788 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $770 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $733 −$1 -0%
USD.AI FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 03 $128 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electio Mar 29 $150 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in April 2026? Mar 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets in April 2026? Mar 29 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general el SELL No 100¢ $37 2d
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $13 2d
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general el BUY No 100¢ $17 2d
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $8 2d
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general el BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $21 2d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,048 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 3d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 3d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,049 3d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 3d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $709 3d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $291 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 3d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $59 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,017 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $15 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $992 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $27 5d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $1,021 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $17 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 5d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $993 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $727 5d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $30 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $310 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,039 5d
Will Félix Auger-Aliassime be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $44 5d
Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,085 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records