Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa184…e531 crypto 310 markets active 0h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$12 (+2%) realized +$14 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%143W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$10
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +6.7% -3.4% 25% 25% -10.2%
≤30d 8 +6.7% -3.4% 25% 25% -10.2%
≤90d 276 -17.7% -25.6% 42% 33% -29.5%
all 309 -3.2% -12.4% 46% 38% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 38% -11.0%
10% -20.8% 34% -19.5%
15% -28.4% 30% -27.3%
20% -35.4% 27% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses143 / 166
Open positions1
Markets (closed)309 / 310
History coverage192d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$6 +593%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 12 $1 +$1 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 25 $3 −$1 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 25 $3 −$1 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 25 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Apr 25 $6 −$3 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 25 $2 $0 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 25 $2 −$1 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Apr 25 $6 −$1 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Apr 25 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 25 $2 $0 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Apr 25 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Apr 25 $3 $0 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Apr 25 $2 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Apr 25 $3 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 24 $1 +$1 +123%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$4 -80%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 24 $1 +$1 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Apr 24 $4 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 24 $2 +$2 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Apr 24 $1 +$2 +165%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$1 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 24 $3 −$1 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Apr 24 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Apr 24 $2 +$1 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Apr 24 $1 +$1 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Apr 24 $1 +$2 +197%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Apr 24 $3 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $7 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 33d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 33d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 33d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 50d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 50d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 50d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 50d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 50d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 50d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $0 50d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 50d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 50d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 50d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 50d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 50d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 50d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 867 history records