Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:36:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
A1 0xa187…570e crypto 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$590 (+119%) realized +$590 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$518
other 20% +$17
crypto 14% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +30.8% +18.3% 60% 60% +85.3%
≤30d 5 +30.8% +18.3% 60% 60% +85.3%
≤90d 5 +30.8% +18.3% 60% 60% +85.3%
all 5 +30.8% +18.3% 60% 60% +85.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.3% 60% +85.3%
10% +7.0% 40% +67.6%
15% -3.3% 40% +51.4%
20% -12.8% 40% +36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +105% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +105% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$194 vs −$31 · ×6.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.35 per $1 lost it wins $9.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$590
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$35 +167%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $312 +$529 +170%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$17 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 1h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 18¢ $2 1h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 28¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $56 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 6h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $841 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 24¢ $10 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 31¢ $102 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $118 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $199 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records