Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:46:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A1 0xa18c…d792 sports 105 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (107 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,714 (-3%) realized −$6,129 · open +$1,415
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate59%45W / 31L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,470per market
Trades / day106.8pace
Fees−$1,117est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$36,460now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39,910
7 days−$9,694
14 days−$6,879
30 days−$6,879
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$6,197
world 17% +$7,699
other 17% −$7,008
crypto 8% −$1,303
tech 3% +$1,181
finance 2% +$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (107 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -0.1% -9.6% 54% 45% -17.5%
≤30d 76 +5.0% -5.0% 59% 47% -14.7%
≤90d 76 +5.0% -5.0% 59% 47% -14.7%
all 76 +5.0% -5.0% 59% 47% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover106.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 47% -14.7%
10% -14.1% 39% -22.9%
15% ← realistic here -22.4% 38% -30.4%
20% -30.0% 33% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$2,316) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +43% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$979 vs −$1,644 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$36,460
Realized−$6,129
Unrealized+$1,415
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses45 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$1,117
Open positions29
Markets (closed)76 / 105
History coverage8d
Avg bet$1,470
Trades / day106.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $4,650 $4,845 +$195 (+4%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 95¢ 95¢ $3,863 $3,865 +$2 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 77¢ 88¢ $2,917 $3,368 +$451 (+15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 90¢ 94¢ $2,710 $2,805 +$95 (+4%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $2,550 $2,625 +$75 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 82¢ 84¢ $2,475 $2,505 +$30 (+1%)
Will Karrigan retire by June 30? No 98¢ 97¢ $2,300 $2,285 −$15 (-1%)
Will XRP reach $1.40 in June? No 77¢ 92¢ $1,563 $1,857 +$294 (+19%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 57¢ $1,475 $1,425 −$50 (-3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 51¢ 52¢ $1,217 $1,252 +$36 (+3%)
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $1,135 $1,142 +$7 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,087 $1,120 +$33 (+3%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 46¢ $1,029 $1,041 +$11 (+1%)
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $903 $909 +$5 (+1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 58¢ $843 $851 +$7 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $654 $749 +$95 (+15%)
Overwatch: Falcons vs O2 Blast (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Falcons 97¢ 97¢ $704 $702 −$3 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $425 $522 +$97 (+23%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $342 $477 +$135 (+39%)
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 42¢ 46¢ $435 $466 +$31 (+7%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $428 $432 +$4 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $508 $421 −$87 (-17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $257 $204 −$54 (-21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $159 $173 +$14 (+9%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $116 $115 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $2,985 +$3,015 +101%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 11? Jun 18 $277 −$277 -100%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $239 −$239 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,075 −$1,075 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2,170 −$2,170 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2,460 −$2,460 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3,180 −$3,180 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $17 +$64 +372%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $400 +$1,572 +393%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,293 +$2,736 +119%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 17 $567 −$567 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $489 −$489 -100%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $608 −$608 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $552 −$552 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 17 $1,427 −$1,427 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 17 $1,164 −$1,164 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,022 −$1,022 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $3,185 −$3,185 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,745 −$2,745 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2,753 −$2,753 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,080 −$2,080 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $2,688 −$2,688 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $3,052 −$3,052 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 16 $3,784 −$3,784 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,830 −$1,830 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,512 −$3,512 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,120 −$1,120 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $960 −$960 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $1,858 −$1,858 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7,020 +$7,682 +109%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,382 +$1,309 +55%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $2,460 +$540 +22%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,000 +$2,000 +100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2,010 +$990 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2,289 +$2,352 +103%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 15 $2,309 −$2,187 -95%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 15 $85 +$15 +18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,280 +$2,716 +212%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2,007 +$1,590 +79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2,830 +$181 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $1,274 +$69 +5%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $183 +$117 +64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,075 +$923 +86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,665 +$1,425 +86%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2,670 +$1,330 +50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $374 +$53 +14%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,380 +$1,620 +117%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $868 +$667 +77%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $2,249 +$42 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $0 1m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $60 3m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $18 47m
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 83¢ $1,141 1h
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $798 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $190 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 2h
Will Karrigan retire by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $293 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $9 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $12 3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $8 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $258 5h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 49¢ $2,985 5h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 6h
Will Karrigan retire by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1,092 6h
Will Karrigan retire by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $20 6h
Will Karrigan retire by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 6h
Will Karrigan retire by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $59 6h
Will Karrigan retire by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $28 6h
Will Karrigan retire by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 6h
Will Karrigan retire by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $654 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $7 6h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $1,210 7h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $112 7h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $20 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36,459.60 · official $36,474.88 (match) · 989 history records