Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:18:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa191…2aa4 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 323d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% $0
other 19% +$1
politics 16% $0
weather 5% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 4% $0
finance 4% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +0.9% -8.7% 23% 8% -9.6%
≤90d 13 +0.9% -8.7% 23% 8% -9.6%
all 35 +0.4% -9.2% 31% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

323d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage323d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 52¢ 53¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $102 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $33 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $13 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $36 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $33 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $33 $0 -2%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Jan 30 $23 $0 +2%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 260–274 times August 8–August 15? Aug 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 09 $40 $0 +0%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Aug 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia airdrop aid into Gaza? Aug 08 $8 $0 -1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? Aug 07 $45 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 05 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $37 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $29 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $4 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $34 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $18 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $17 20h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $33 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $33 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $11 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $22 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $10 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $24 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $13 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $13 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $4 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $2 26d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $31 26d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 99¢ $35 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.63 · official $37.63 (match) · 116 history records