Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:22:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa196…9418 crypto 236 markets active 2h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$408 (-2%) realized −$408 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate59%139W / 97L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$188
14 days−$233
30 days−$675
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$2
crypto 37% −$119
weather 8% −$354
sports 1% −$84
culture 0% +$3
politics 0% −$12
finance 0% −$14
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -48.1% -53.0% 39% 28% -39.2%
≤30d 67 -37.1% -43.1% 36% 30% -16.2%
≤90d 236 -18.0% -25.8% 59% 23% -12.4%
all 236 -18.0% -25.8% 59% 23% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 23% -12.4%
10% -32.9% 11% -20.8%
15% -39.4% 7% -28.5%
20% -45.3% 5% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -15% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$21 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$408
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses139 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)236 / 236
History coverage46d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 236 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $22 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $21 +$2 +8%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$5 -72%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $58 −$56 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $47 +$10 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $90 −$88 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $147 +$24 +17%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +37%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $196 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $16 −$7 -44%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$4 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $2 +$2 +85%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $602 −$113 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$7 +69%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$8 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $125 −$120 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,372 −$374 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $177 +$7 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $4 +$2 +53%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $305 −$8 -3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 31 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $50 +$5 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -44%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 83¢ $22 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 91¢ $21 14h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $25 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? SELL Yes 56¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 85¢ $41 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $58 5d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 79¢ $47 5d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 5d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 785 history records