Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa19a…30b0 weather 22 markets active 2d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$79 (-21%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate77%17W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$82
14 days−$81
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -16.2% -24.2% 72% 28% -30.9%
≤30d 22 -12.9% -21.2% 77% 23% -29.0%
≤90d 22 -12.9% -21.2% 77% 23% -29.0%
all 22 -12.9% -21.2% 77% 23% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 23% -29.0%
10% -28.7% 5% -35.8%
15% -35.6% 0% -42.0%
20% -41.9% 0% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$22 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses17 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage7d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 11 $27 −$22 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $86 −$85 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $38 +$12 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 09 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 9? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 80¢ $16 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 97¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 97¢ $13 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 97¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 97¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $11 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 73¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 73¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $18 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 66¢ $42 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 65¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $30 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 71¢ $14 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 67¢ $27 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 69¢ $36 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 82¢ $17 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? SELL No 90¢ $16 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records