Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:16:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1a0…2746 other 211 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$200 (-5%) realized −$194 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate47%52W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day43.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$1,751now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$74
tech 26% +$1
sports 23% −$4
crypto 16% −$237
world 2% −$4
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -18.7% -26.5% 47% 32% -23.5%
≤30d 110 -18.7% -26.5% 47% 32% -23.5%
≤90d 110 -18.7% -26.5% 47% 32% -23.5%
all 110 -18.7% -26.5% 47% 32% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.5% 32% -23.5%
10% ← realistic here -33.5% 27% -30.8%
15% -39.9% 23% -37.5%
20% -45.8% 18% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1,751
Realized−$194
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses52 / 58
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions101
Markets (closed)110 / 211
History coverage6d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 101 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $930 $938 +$8 (+1%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? No 100¢ 100¢ $177 $176 −$0 (-0%)
Will Manu Koné be in France's Starting 11? Yes 2¢ 32¢ $7 $107 +$100 (+1492%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $46 $46 −$1 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $46 $40 −$6 (-14%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 12¢ 24¢ $18 $36 +$18 (+104%)
Will Brazil finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $20 $25 +$4 (+21%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-1%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? No 97¢ 96¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 55¢ 74¢ $9 $13 +$3 (+35%)
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 53¢ 66¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+24%)
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30? Meta 4¢ 4¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30? Anthropic + OpenAI 97¢ 96¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-22%)
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 70¢ 62¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-12%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? No 11¢ 8¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-27%)
Alessandro Schöpf: 2+ goals Yes 6¢ 35¢ $1 $7 +$5 (+483%)
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Yes 66¢ 88¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+34%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-36%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $2 $5 +$4 (+190%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +238%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +158%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $452 +$4 +1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$7 +388%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +474%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $9 +$12 +124%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Will Manuel Neuer be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +181%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $197 −$66 -33%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $94 −$1 -2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
NBA Finals: Any Player to Record a Triple-Double? Jun 14 $167 +$24 +15%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +73%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Will De'Aaron Fox lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +61%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 1h
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 66¢ $19 3h
Spain to win the second half? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 8.5 Corners BUY Over 41¢ $2 5h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $1 6h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $2 6h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 41¢ $1 6h
Cucurella: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6h
Nico Williams: 2+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $2 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $177 10h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia? BUY No 99¢ $452 11h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $47 11h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 11h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 11h
Will Fabián Ruiz be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 11h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 11h
Tunisia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,750.67 · official $1,750.68 (match) · 333 history records