Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:20:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1a3…72eb other 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$17
politics 29% −$11
sports 10% +$3
crypto 6% −$2
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 91 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 121 +0.1% -9.4% 7% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 4% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×8.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage127d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $994 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $178 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,077 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 06 $245 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $183 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $232 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $249 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $189 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 03 $229 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $202 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $170 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $201 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $214 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 01 $214 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $220 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $176 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $402 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $229 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $392 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $220 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $178 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $220 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $232 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $171 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $200 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $427 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $229 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 19 $467 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $208 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $221 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $207 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $187 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 16 $250 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 15 $235 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 15 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $228 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $200 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $197 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 21h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $42 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 10d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 10d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 16d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 25d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 29d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $171 34d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $171 35d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $212 36d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $212 38d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $204 46d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $204 46d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $186 46d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $186 46d
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $245 46d
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $245 47d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $183 48d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $183 48d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $232 48d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $232 48d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $249 48d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $249 48d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $240 49d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $240 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.99 · official $21.99 (match) · 362 history records