Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:30:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1a4…a9ca other 267 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$105 (-0%) realized −$105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 254L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$29
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$33
sports 25% −$21
politics 11% −$6
crypto 8% −$46
culture 5% −$4
economics 4% −$4
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 88 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 194 -0.3% -9.8% 3% 0% -9.8%
all 267 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 254
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)267 / 267
History coverage139d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 267 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $68 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $259 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $429 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $288 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $132 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $243 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $412 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $377 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $226 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $115 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $362 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $283 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $126 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $217 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $259 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $244 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $70 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $364 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $294 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $223 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $275 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $73 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $170 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $77 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $336 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $311 −$3 -1%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $147 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $90 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $338 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $364 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $191 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $366 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $186 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $79 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $297 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $32 17m
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $32 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $32 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 6h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $32 8h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $32 10h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $32 12h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $32 13h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $32 15h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $32 15h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $32 16h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $32 19h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $32 21h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $32 21h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $32 23h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $32 25h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $32 26h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $32 28h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $32 30h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 32h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 34h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $32 35h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $32 37h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 38h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 39h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 40h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 42h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $32 44h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $32 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1532 history records