Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:42:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1a6…65a7 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate28%8W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$3
politics 28% +$1
world 20% +$1
culture 9% $0
tech 5% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.8% -3.4% 100% 0% -3.4%
≤30d 5 -0.0% -9.6% 40% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 6 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -8.8%
all 29 -2.8% -12.0% 28% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 3% -9.7%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses8 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage280d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $27 +$2 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $28 −$1 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $3 $0 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Jan 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $29 +$1 +4%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 22 $1 $0 -2%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 21 $8 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $29 $0 -1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 18 $4 +$1 +19%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $58 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $29 $0 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $29 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 44¢ $22 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 44¢ $5 5h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $27 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $9 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $19 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 30d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 79¢ $28 209d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 79¢ $28 209d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? SELL No 61¢ $1 209d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? SELL No 61¢ $6 209d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? SELL No 61¢ $4 209d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? SELL No 61¢ $6 209d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? SELL No 61¢ $7 209d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? SELL No 61¢ $3 209d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? BUY No 61¢ $28 209d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $28 209d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $28 210d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 77¢ $31 210d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records