Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:06:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1a6…ca00 other 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%21W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$11
14 days−$23
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$25
politics 22% −$15
sports 18% −$6
crypto 9% −$7
culture 8% −$10
world 5% −$3
finance 5% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.5% -9.9% 8% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 66 -0.8% -10.3% 9% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 115 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 139 -0.5% -10.0% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses21 / 118
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage103d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $235 −$1 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $49 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $163 −$2 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $80 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $92 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 19 $114 −$1 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $107 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 18 $112 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $67 −$1 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $46 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $116 +$1 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $147 −$1 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $95 −$1 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $273 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $118 −$1 -1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $45 −$1 -3%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $66 −$3 -5%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $68 −$3 -4%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $389 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $57 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $121 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $62 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 05 $52 $0 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 05 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 04 $63 −$1 -1%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $57 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential Jun 03 $45 −$4 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $20 $0 -2%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $24 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $62 58m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $48 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $48 9h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 10h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 18h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $48 18h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $49 24h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $63 25h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $65 33h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $61 34h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $61 40h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $38 41h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $38 45h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $50 45h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $50 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $61 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $62 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 98¢ $55 3d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 3d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $58 3d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $55 3d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $60 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $7 4d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.92 · official $61.92 (match) · 510 history records