Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1a7…ef19 other 249 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 237L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$29
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$41
sports 22% −$21
politics 8% −$5
crypto 7% −$6
economics 6% −$6
culture 6% −$8
world 5% −$4
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)248 / 249
History coverage135d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $58 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $270 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $390 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $152 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $344 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $191 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 19 $243 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $182 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $118 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $650 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $221 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $200 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $252 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $516 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $521 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $676 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $730 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $546 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $167 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $462 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $271 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $226 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $634 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $228 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $148 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $171 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $342 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $214 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $232 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $351 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $425 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $227 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $470 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $230 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $401 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $248 −$2 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $679 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $363 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $397 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $232 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $261 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $58 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $58 4h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $58 5h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $58 6h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 8h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 17h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 18h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $34 24h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $34 26h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $58 26h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $58 27h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 36h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $58 38h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 38h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 39h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 42h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 44h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 45h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 46h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.50 · official $57.50 (match) · 1393 history records