Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:10:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1a7…ace4 other 830 markets active 13h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,296 (+17%) realized +$4,296 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%467W / 639L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day98.2pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$1,491
sports 36% +$1,063
world 0% −$6
crypto 0% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 415 -70.8% -73.6% 17% 16% -32.6%
≤30d 1106 -22.0% -29.4% 42% 39% -13.0%
≤90d 1106 -22.0% -29.4% 42% 39% -13.0%
all 1106 -22.0% -29.4% 42% 39% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.4% 39% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -36.2% 32% -21.3%
15% -42.3% 23% -28.9%
20% -48.0% 16% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,296
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses467 / 639
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1106 / 830
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day98.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1106 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will CD Guadalajara vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Colorado Rapids SC vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-17? Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashiwa Reysol end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-13? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: FC Groningen (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Lecce end in a draw? Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-2.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Atalanta BC (-2.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-17? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Philadelphia Union vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Al Riyadh Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-05-10? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Sporting Kansas City vs. Los Angeles Galaxy end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Sporting Kansas City vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Como 1907 (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-13? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Levante UD (-2.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht end in a draw? Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Austin FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota United FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-10? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw? Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Will FC Midtjylland vs. Brøndby IF end in a draw? Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
CD Guadalajara vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-10? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will FC Famalicão vs. FC Alverca end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: EC Bahia (-2.5) Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-17? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Granada CF vs. Burgos CF end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-05-08? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 34¢ $2 13h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 14h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $23 15h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY No 72¢ $31 15h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY No 80¢ $128 15h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 15h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $13 15h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $74 15h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY No 64¢ $67 15h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY No 64¢ $36 15h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $68 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $61 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $8 17h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $69 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 86¢ $34 17h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $34 17h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $64 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 83¢ $20 17h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $19 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 83¢ $20 17h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $19 17h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $1 17h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $39 17h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $64 17h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $57 17h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $28 17h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $5 17h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $60 18h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY No 79¢ $105 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records