Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:02:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1a8…6764 sports 672 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$130 (+1%) realized +$204 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%263W / 385L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day72.3pace
Fees−$393est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,616now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$691
7 days+$372
14 days+$1,210
30 days+$536
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$1,253
other 11% −$51
crypto 0% −$2
world 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -0.4% -9.9% 42% 42% -3.1%
≤30d 539 -3.3% -12.5% 39% 39% -7.0%
≤90d 648 +1.3% -8.3% 41% 40% -4.2%
all 648 +1.3% -8.3% 41% 40% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 40% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 40% -13.3%
15% -25.1% 39% -21.7%
20% -32.4% 39% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$29 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$1,616
Realized+$204
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses263 / 385
Est. fees paid−$393
Open positions24
Markets (closed)648 / 672
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day72.3
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 648 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 39¢ 44¢ $131 $147 +$16 (+12%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $138 $137 −$2 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 34¢ $137 $127 −$10 (-7%)
Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 45¢ $105 $106 +$1 (+1%)
Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $107 $104 −$4 (-3%)
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 45¢ $106 $103 −$3 (-3%)
Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 44¢ $105 $100 −$5 (-5%)
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $93 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $93 $90 −$3 (-3%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Over 45¢ 46¢ $83 $83 +$0 (+0%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates 36¢ 34¢ $86 $82 −$3 (-4%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Over 46¢ 44¢ $78 $76 −$2 (-3%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $64 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Over 34¢ 26¢ $80 $60 −$20 (-25%)
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Over 44¢ 46¢ $54 $55 +$2 (+3%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Over 44¢ 24¢ $80 $43 −$37 (-47%)
Set Handicap: Altmaier (-1.5) vs Molcan (+1.5) Altmaier 38¢ 36¢ $20 $20 −$1 (-3%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Over 37¢ 28¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-24%)
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-2.5) vs Jones (+2.5) Nakashima 36¢ 47¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+29%)
Set Handicap: Humbert (-2.5) vs Bergs (+2.5) Humbert 26¢ 26¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will CDOriente Petrolero win on 2026-06-13? Yes 29¢ 44¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+51%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Over 43¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Set Handicap: Khachanov (-2.5) vs Harris (+2.5) Khachanov 32¢ 31¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $108 +$128 +119%
Set Handicap: Fucsovics (-2.5) vs Assche (+2.5) Jun 29 $2 +$1 +63%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 29 $112 −$112 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 29 $104 −$104 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $124 −$124 -100%
Set Handicap: Sonmez (-1.5) vs Li (+1.5) Jun 29 $13 −$13 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $102 +$122 +120%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $9 +$12 +129%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $88 +$111 +127%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $12 +$18 +158%
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $6 +$10 +165%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Operário Ferroviário EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $55 −$55 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 28 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Ghana go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 28 $106 −$106 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $106 −$106 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $101 −$101 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $98 −$98 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $103 −$103 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $113 −$113 -100%
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $120 −$120 -100%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $117 −$117 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $114 −$114 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 28 $126 −$126 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $74 +$94 +127%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $126 +$199 +157%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $7 +$8 +114%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $113 +$134 +119%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $126 +$165 +130%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $11 +$14 +129%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $18 +$26 +146%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $22 +$36 +165%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $94 +$117 +124%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $98 +$149 +152%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $104 +$134 +129%
Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $25 +$33 +132%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $108 +$153 +142%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $108 +$177 +164%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $93 +$135 +146%
Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5) Jun 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 26 $77 −$77 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $77 −$77 -100%
Cuiabá EC vs. Londrina EC: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $2 +$3 +165%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $52 +$64 +124%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 186.5 Jun 26 $2 +$3 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3 16m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 45¢ $6 38m
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 46¢ $6 38m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 45¢ $54 45m
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 46¢ $11 45m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 35¢ $9 45m
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 45¢ $15 53m
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 45¢ $35 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 46¢ $8 1h
Set Handicap: Altmaier (-1.5) vs Molcan (+1.5) BUY Altmaier 36¢ $4 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 46¢ $9 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 41¢ $73 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 36¢ $59 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 41¢ $13 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 40¢ $12 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 40¢ $3 6h
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 6h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 6h
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 40¢ $24 6h
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 43¢ $27 6h
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 46¢ $77 7h
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 43¢ $47 8h
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 43¢ $23 8h
Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $7 8h
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 43¢ $15 8h
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 9h
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 10h
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3 10h
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 44¢ $23 10h
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 44¢ $27 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,615.61 · official $1,615.64 (match) · 3500 history records