Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:53:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A1 0xa1a8…140f sports 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,099 (+13%) realized +$1,099 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%27W / 25L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days+$153
14 days+$1,423
30 days+$1,423
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$1,670
other 5% −$321
world 4% −$58
crypto 0% −$30
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +9.0% -1.4% 60% 60% -6.1%
≤30d 18 +23.1% +11.4% 67% 67% +7.1%
≤90d 18 +23.1% +11.4% 67% 67% +7.1%
all 52 -8.2% -17.0% 52% 52% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 52% +4.2%
10% -24.9% 46% -5.8%
15% -32.2% 46% -14.9%
20% -38.8% 35% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$157 vs −$119 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,099
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses27 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage598d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $504 +$198 +39%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $225 +$275 +122%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $506 −$506 -100%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $88 −$88 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $520 +$479 +92%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $693 +$356 +51%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $306 −$306 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $722 −$722 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $432 +$367 +85%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 +$100 +100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $503 +$446 +88%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $495 +$254 +51%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $408 +$763 +187%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,013 −$1,013 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,000 +$859 +86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $65 +$39 +59%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $42 +$23 +55%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Dec 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Kings vs. Pacers Dec 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 08 $10 +$4 +43%
UFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card) Dec 07 $5 +$4 +82%
Georgia vs. Alabama Dec 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Mavericks vs. Thunder Dec 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Pistons vs. Bucks Dec 03 $34 −$34 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Raptors Dec 03 $23 +$11 +49%
Chelsea vs. Arsenal: Both Teams to Score Nov 30 $10 +$9 +87%
Spread: Real Madrid (-1.5) Nov 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Celta Vigo vs. Espanyol: Both Teams to Score Nov 30 $5 −$5 -100%
West Ham vs. Liverpool: Both Teams to Score Nov 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Celtics vs. Timberwolves Nov 30 $21 +$8 +37%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $5 +$11 +212%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on September 17? Nov 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conferenc Nov 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5) Nov 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur win on 2025-09-16? Sep 16 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16? Sep 16 $10 +$8 +78%
Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-09-16? Sep 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Juventus win on 2025-09-16? Sep 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City beat Feyenoord? Nov 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Barcelona beat Stade Brestois? Nov 27 $3 +$1 +20%
Will AC Milan beat Slovan Bratislava? Nov 27 $3 +$1 +20%
Will Bayer Leverkusen beat RB Salzburg? Nov 27 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Atalanta beat Young Boys? Nov 27 $3 +$1 +43%
Will Inter Milan beat RB Leipzig? Nov 27 $3 +$1 +45%
Will Atletico Madrid beat Sparta Praha? Nov 27 $3 +$2 +64%
Will Bodo Glimt beat Qarabag? Nov 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Porto beat Lazio? Nov 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 12m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $702 13m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $504 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $225 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $0 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $187 47h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $84 47h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $9 47h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 47h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $198 47h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $4 47h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 47h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $21 47h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 40¢ $88 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $999 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $479 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $34 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,044 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 66¢ $16 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 66¢ $146 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 66¢ $107 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 66¢ $349 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 66¢ $75 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 34¢ $195 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 34¢ $52 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 34¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records