Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:17:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A1 0xa1a8…0e3e other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 101L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$21
politics 27% −$4
economics 5% −$1
sports 3% +$33
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 111 -0.3% -9.8% 9% 7% -9.5%
all 111 -0.3% -9.8% 9% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 7% -9.5%
10% -18.5% 7% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 7% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×11.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 101
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)111 / 113
History coverage93d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $273 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $308 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $322 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $115 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $113 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $114 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 14 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 13 $113 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $206 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $214 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $109 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 06 $107 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $326 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $112 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $107 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $111 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $230 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 02 $109 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $110 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $106 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $321 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $108 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $106 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 25 $109 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $458 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $115 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $106 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $115 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $431 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $109 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $110 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $112 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 29h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 31h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $75 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 2d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 4d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 4d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 8d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 9d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 9d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $24 10d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $24 10d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 10d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 11d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 13d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 13d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 14d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 15d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 15d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 17d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 17d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $14 18d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $14 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 19d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 19d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 20d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 20d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $16 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.82 · official $102.82 (match) · 301 history records