Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:45:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

A1 0xa1ab…3ced other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$34 (-37%) realized −$34 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip

Net edge-56%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$23per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-54.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-49.3%	-54.1%	33%	33%	-61.0%
≤30d	3	-49.3%	-54.1%	33%	33%	-61.0%
≤90d	3	-49.3%	-54.1%	33%	33%	-61.0%
all	3	-49.3%	-54.1%	33%	33%	-61.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-54.1%	33%	-61.0%
10%	-58.5%	33%	-64.7%
15%	-62.5%	33%	-68.1%
20%	-66.2%	33%	-71.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -57% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -49% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$22 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.21 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$30

Realized−$34

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$23

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	61¢	62¢	$30	$30	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$17	−$17	-100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$26	−$26	-98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$17	+$9	+52%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	61¢	$30	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	40¢	$26	12h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$26	12h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	28¢	$17	14h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	65¢	$17	16h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.25 · official $30.25 (match) · 6 history records