Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:39:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1ad…5940 other 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%22W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$1
other 24% +$2
politics 11% $0
crypto 6% +$1
culture 2% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 20 +0.5% -9.1% 45% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 20 +0.5% -9.1% 45% 0% -9.3%
all 61 +0.2% -9.3% 36% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 3% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 3% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 3% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses22 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage306d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $47 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $46 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $45 +$1 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $129 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $35 +$2 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $44 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $52 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $2 $0 +3%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $3 $0 -4%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 14 $9 +$4 +43%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $28 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 24 $10 $0 -2%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 23 $10 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Oct 10 $26 −$2 -9%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $6 $0 +4%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 25 $5 $0 -1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $1 $0 -5%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 10 $15 $0 +3%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 08 $1 +$1 +72%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $47 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $47 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $40 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $7 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $46 7h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $46 18h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $46 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $46 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $45 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $6 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $8 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $42 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $33 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $9 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $37 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $5 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $26 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $16 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $23 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $6 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 243 history records