Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:43:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A1 0xa1ad…a4a5 sports 47 markets active 5d ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$168 (+9%) realized +$173 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%28W / 18L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$34
14 days+$124
30 days+$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$294
world 7% −$125
other 7% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +19.7% +8.3% 50% 50% +15.0%
≤30d 37 +2.7% -7.1% 57% 57% +4.9%
≤90d 46 +5.3% -4.7% 61% 61% -1.4%
all 46 +5.3% -4.7% 61% 61% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 61% -1.4%
10% -13.8% 52% -10.9%
15% -22.2% 41% -19.5%
20% -29.8% 33% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$29 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$173
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses28 / 18
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage40d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $10 −$5 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $23 −$23 -99%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $20 +$38 +188%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $28 +$16 +57%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $21 +$37 +172%
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) Jun 16 $28 +$23 +83%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 +$79 +158%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$26 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $43 +$71 +165%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $43 −$42 -99%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $10 −$8 -81%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $30 +$36 +122%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $35 −$35 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $15 −$15 -97%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 06 $37 +$29 +76%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 05 $54 +$13 +24%
Perugia: Pierluigi Basile vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 02 $29 +$9 +31%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $51 +$25 +49%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $41 +$35 +86%
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $20 −$20 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $17 −$17 -98%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 28 $42 +$15 +36%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $41 +$22 +52%
Roland Garros WTA: Tamara Korpatsch vs Xinyu Wang May 27 $41 +$10 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang May 27 $40 −$40 -99%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 26 $30 +$26 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Zhizhen Zhang May 26 $40 +$15 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Jesper de Jong May 25 $30 +$6 +18%
Chisinau: Elias Ymer vs Saba Purtseladze May 25 $30 +$5 +17%
Will SC Paderborn achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundeslig May 25 $24 −$24 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Emilio Nava vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 25 $24 $0 -0%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Qinwen Zheng May 25 $30 +$4 +13%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 0.5 May 23 $36 +$14 +38%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: Draw at halftime? May 23 $12 +$14 +112%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions May 23 $62 +$20 +32%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro May 21 $45 −$45 -99%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanxi Loongs May 13 $199 +$37 +18%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $126 −$125 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $101 +$26 +26%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $19 +$12 +64%
Shanxi Loongs vs. Zhejiang Lions May 10 $51 +$27 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 53¢ $23 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 6d
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 34¢ $20 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $28 6d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $21 7d
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) BUY Muchova 54¢ $28 7d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $50 7d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 57¢ $51 8d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 41¢ $31 8d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $16 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $30 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $43 9d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $43 10d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No $2 12d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $65 12d
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty BUY Indiana Fever 57¢ $35 16d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 12¢ $15 17d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 56¢ $37 18d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions BUY Shanghai Sharks 80¢ $54 18d
Perugia: Pierluigi Basile vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Pierluigi Basile 76¢ $29 21d
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Zhejiang Lions 66¢ $51 21d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $30 21d
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Zhejiang Lions 12¢ $5 23d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 24d
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 24d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 25¢ $17 25d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $10 26d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions BUY Shanghai Sharks 73¢ $42 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.31 · official $10.31 (match) · 81 history records