Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A1 0xa1b3…931c weather 1615 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$217 (+2%) realized +$205 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate76%1222W / 387L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day31.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$58
14 days+$94
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$101
other 1% +$9
culture 0% $0
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +9.3% -1.1% 79% 78% -2.2%
≤30d 656 +2.4% -7.4% 81% 68% -8.2%
≤90d 1609 +2.2% -7.5% 76% 67% -8.6%
all 1609 +2.2% -7.5% 76% 67% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 67% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 36% -17.4%
15% -24.5% 14% -25.4%
20% -31.9% 9% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$205
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1222 / 387
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1609 / 1615
History coverage67d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day31.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1609 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Yes 65¢ 100¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+53%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Yes 69¢ 100¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Yes 72¢ 100¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? No 51¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+96%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? No 77¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? No 86¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 180 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$5 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +42%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $7 +$5 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $8 +$5 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $8 +$4 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$5 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$6 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$4 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 15 $7 +$4 +61%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$5 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 72¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 65¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 51¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 51¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 18h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 61¢ $8 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $8 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 26h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 27h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $8 27h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $0 27h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 77¢ $7 28h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 74¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $8 29h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $8 29h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $8 29h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 63¢ $4 31h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 69¢ $4 31h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $5 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 60¢ $7 34h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 35h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 36h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY No 54¢ $3 36h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 60¢ $8 38h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 68¢ $5 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.00 · official $67.41 (match) · 3339 history records