Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:23:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A1 0xa1b6…e0a0 sports 292 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37,595 (-19%) realized −$37,805 · open +$210
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%143W / 143L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$689per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$2,462est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$704now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$15,157
14 days−$15,672
30 days−$16,611
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$37,397
world 5% +$710
other 2% −$2,427
crypto 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -3.5% -12.7% 65% 61% -84.7%
≤30d 184 +1.6% -8.0% 61% 60% -40.6%
≤90d 286 -5.2% -14.3% 50% 48% -27.4%
all 286 -5.2% -14.3% 50% 48% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 48% -27.4%
10% -22.5% 39% -34.3%
15% -30.0% 29% -40.7%
20% -36.8% 20% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$599) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$269 vs −$545 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$704
Realized−$37,805
Unrealized+$210
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses143 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$2,462
Open positions6
Markets (closed)286 / 292
History coverage58d
Avg bet$689
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 53¢ 100¢ $246 $464 +$218 (+89%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 81¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Gentle Mates 69¢ 69¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
ITF Dinard: Marie Vogt vs Sol Ailin Larraya Guidi Marie Vogt 78¢ 100¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+28%)
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Execration 63¢ 64¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Aruzhan Sagandikova vs Ana Giraldi Requena Aruzhan Sagandikova 83¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 17 $13 +$3 +20%
ITF Klosters: Pedro Sakamoto vs Andrin Casanova Jun 17 $8 +$4 +46%
ITF Klosters: Nicolas Parizzia vs Sandro Kopp Jun 17 $7 +$1 +16%
ITF Klosters: Kristyna Paul vs Emily Seibold Jun 17 $9 +$1 +13%
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder Jun 17 $11 +$2 +16%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $29 +$24 +83%
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Jun 16 $242 +$41 +17%
ITF Luque: Catarina Melleiro vs Isabella Barrera Aguirre Jun 16 $45 +$7 +16%
Marozsan vs. Kecmanovic: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $27 +$15 +56%
Set 1 Winner: Mushika vs Lin Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
ITF Klosters: Jenny Duerst vs Elsa Bonelli Jun 16 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $70 −$69 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 15 $20 +$7 +34%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $143 +$92 +65%
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $471 −$466 -99%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 15 $44 −$43 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $302 +$623 +206%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $100 +$8 +8%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1,000 −$268 -27%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $14,075 −$14,000 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $102 +$20 +20%
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 12 $31 −$5 -15%
ITF Wichita: Andrew Fenty vs Thanaphat Boosarawongse Jun 11 $14 +$4 +27%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $100 +$76 +76%
Shimabukuro vs. Kyrgios: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $48 +$9 +19%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Jan Hrazdil vs Rudolf Molleker Jun 11 $100 +$15 +15%
Tucuman (Doubles): Ambrogi/Zeitune vs Monzon/Villalon Jun 11 $31 +$6 +19%
ITF Zagreb: Lucija Ciric Bagaric vs Laura Mair Jun 11 $252 −$250 -99%
ITF Madrid: Briyana Ivanova vs Paula Cembranos Jun 11 $57 −$57 -99%
ITF Kayseri: Defne Aydemir vs Ilay Yoruk Jun 11 $89 +$26 +29%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Sato vs Kurea Hayasaka Jun 11 $672 −$76 -11%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 10 $51 +$40 +79%
ITF Cuiaba: Jennifer Rosa Dourado vs Marjorie Souza Jun 10 $17 +$2 +14%
ITF Martos: Pablo Martinez Gomez vs Pablo Perez Navarro Jun 10 $100 +$35 +35%
ITF Wichita: Mikael Arseneault vs Sebastian Gorzny Jun 10 $75 +$25 +34%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $101 +$20 +20%
ITF Messina: Christian Sigsgaard vs Lorenzo Beraldo Jun 10 $15 +$6 +38%
Ilkley: Hamish Stewart vs Leandro Riedi Jun 10 $39 +$15 +38%
ITF Decatur: Sahaja Yamalapalli vs Carlota Moreno Jun 10 $14 +$4 +26%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Rajat Shirur vs Nicolas Jadoun Jun 10 $72 +$18 +24%
Bratislava (Doubles): Kovalik/Martin vs Krajci/Lanik Jun 10 $71 +$39 +55%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $680 −$667 -98%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $22 +$49 +216%
ITF Guimaraes: Savannah Broadus vs Carmen Lopez Martinez Jun 10 $32 +$5 +14%
Bratislava (Doubles): Gadamauri/Pereira vs Lammons/Withrow Jun 10 $15 +$10 +70%
Tucuman: Samuel Heredia vs Hernan Casanova Jun 10 $47 +$15 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 69¢ $50 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $249 11h
ITF Dinard: Marie Vogt vs Sol Ailin Larraya Guidi BUY Marie Vogt 78¢ $13 11h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Aruzhan Sagandikova vs Ana Giraldi Requena BUY Aruzhan Sagandikova 83¢ $12 11h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Execration 63¢ $11 22h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Guido Justo 83¢ $13 22h
ITF Luque: Catarina Melleiro vs Isabella Barrera Aguirre BUY Isabella Barrera Aguirre 86¢ $45 43h
ITF Klosters: Nicolas Parizzia vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 86¢ $7 43h
ITF Klosters: Pedro Sakamoto vs Andrin Casanova BUY Pedro Sakamoto 68¢ $8 43h
Set 1 Winner: Mushika vs Lin BUY Mushika 67¢ $10 43h
ITF Klosters: Jenny Duerst vs Elsa Bonelli BUY Jenny Duerst 72¢ $11 43h
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov BUY Pavel Kotov 85¢ $242 43h
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder BUY Eva Marie Voracek 86¢ $11 43h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 54¢ $70 43h
ITF Klosters: Kristyna Paul vs Emily Seibold BUY Emily Seibold 88¢ $9 43h
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 2d
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 61¢ $321 2d
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 61¢ $50 2d
Marozsan vs. Kecmanovic: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 63¢ $27 2d
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Eliakim Coulibaly 29¢ $44 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $143 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $1,012 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $29 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 83¢ $5,025 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 82¢ $9,050 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $102 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $102 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 75¢ $10 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 73¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $703.77 · official $703.78 (match) · 631 history records