Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:43:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1b7…00ba crypto 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 382d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$142 (-2%) realized −$141 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$151
14 days−$142
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$3
world 27% −$2
other 22% +$8
tech 9% −$1
sports 4% −$148
crypto 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -12.6% -20.9% 12% 0% -13.3%
≤30d 11 -6.2% -15.2% 27% 9% -13.0%
≤90d 15 -4.6% -13.7% 33% 7% -12.9%
all 45 -1.4% -10.8% 36% 2% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 2% -11.6%
10% -19.3% 2% -20.1%
15% -27.1% 0% -27.8%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

382d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$141
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage382d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 24? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Panama 61¢ 58¢ $16 $16 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 23 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 23 $525 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $582 −$1 -0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.70 and $0.80 on June 19? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 18 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect Jun 18 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $600 −$1 -0%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 17 $148 −$147 -99%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 10 $29 +$9 +32%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,800 on January 21? Jan 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 5-11? Jan 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will André Pestana win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $3.00 on November 4? Dec 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $230 on November 4? Nov 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Nov 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Klaas Dijkhoff become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Oct 30 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 September 22-28? Oct 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Aug 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Aug 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2200 on June 27? Jul 19 $5 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 25 $40 $0 -0%
Will Felix Gall win the Tour de France 2025? Jun 25 $38 $0 -0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Jun 18 $235 $0 -0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 18 $240 $0 -0%
Will CF Pachuca win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 18 $248 $0 -0%
Will Ugo Humbert win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 12 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $237 $0 -0%
Will Virgil van Dijk win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $240 $0 -0%
Will Erling Haaland win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 06 $247 $0 -0%
Will Alberto Undurraga win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 06 $255 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 1h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL No 99¢ $542 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $502 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $525 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $531 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $582 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 61¢ $16 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $586 5d
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect SELL No 100¢ $589 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 5d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.70 and $0.80 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $596 5d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.70 and $0.80 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 68¢ $148 5d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? BUY No 75¢ $29 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $31 73d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $13 73d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $31 73d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 89d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 89d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $30 89d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.54 · official $33.54 (match) · 127 history records