Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:04:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1b7…5383 other 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,374 (-1%) realized −$1,376 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate26%40W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,248per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$39
30 days−$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$21
politics 37% −$88
sports 13% −$1,324
culture 3% −$7
world 2% −$40
crypto 1% +$21
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 38 -1.8% -11.2% 8% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 71 -0.9% -10.4% 10% 6% -10.8%
all 151 +3.2% -6.7% 26% 13% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 13% -10.2%
10% -15.6% 13% -18.8%
15% -23.8% 9% -26.6%
20% -31.2% 7% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,645) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$26 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized−$1,376
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses40 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage146d
Avg bet$1,248
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $223 $225 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $3,497 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $3,503 −$5 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $1,901 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,261 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,069 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $1,071 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,089 −$4 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,220 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,075 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $958 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 11 $947 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $1,077 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $4,457 −$5 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,189 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,469 −$4 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,244 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,860 −$3 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 04 $78 −$78 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $51 +$68 +134%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,639 −$4 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $922 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $330 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $433 +$2 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $4,526 −$5 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $1,869 −$3 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $907 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $2,162 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $555 −$1 -0%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 24 $52 +$67 +129%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,273 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $1,066 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $69 +$30 +44%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $1,195 −$2 -0%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) May 20 $1,943 −$1,943 -100%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $1,807 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $739 1h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $740 2h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $719 43h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $720 45h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $628 45h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $629 47h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $808 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $809 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $890 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $891 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $827 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $828 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $527 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $528 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $668 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $669 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $937 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $938 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,068 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,069 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,070 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,071 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,070 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,072 9d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,070 9d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,072 9d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,073 10d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,075 10d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $956 12d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $958 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.74 · official $224.74 (match) · 464 history records