Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:39:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1b7…4945 crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$56 (-11%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate49%26W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -34.1% -40.4% 43% 30% -36.1%
≤30d 23 -34.1% -40.4% 43% 30% -36.1%
≤90d 53 -24.8% -31.9% 49% 32% -33.1%
all 53 -24.8% -31.9% 49% 32% -33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 32% -33.1%
10% -38.4% 23% -39.5%
15% -44.4% 6% -45.4%
20% -49.8% 6% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses26 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage33d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 29 $46 −$19 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 29 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 29 $12 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $24 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 29 $41 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$4 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 29 $13 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 28 $2 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 28 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 28 $1 $0 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 28 $8 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 28 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 28 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 28 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 28 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 28 $8 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 28 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 28 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 28 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 28 $6 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 28 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 28 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 28 $13 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 27 $6 +$3 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $37 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $17 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $46 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $41 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $34 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $31 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records