Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A1 0xa1bf…e650 crypto 202 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,194 (+17%) realized +$1,249 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%95W / 100L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$941now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$824
7 days+$1,382
14 days+$1,312
30 days+$1,234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$428
other 34% +$1,174
sports 18% +$256
politics 3% −$33
culture 0% $0
finance 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +83.4% +65.9% 54% 54% +89.8%
≤30d 54 +44.5% +30.7% 46% 46% +63.6%
≤90d 56 +40.2% +26.9% 45% 45% +62.1%
all 195 +13.5% +2.7% 49% 47% +6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 47% +6.6%
10% -7.1% 43% -3.6%
15% -16.1% 34% -12.9%
20% -24.3% 26% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +79% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$21 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$941
Realized+$1,249
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses95 / 100
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions7
Markets (closed)195 / 202
History coverage145d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $430 $444 +$14 (+3%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 67¢ $100 $134 +$34 (+34%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $129 $105 −$24 (-19%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 33¢ $100 $66 −$34 (-34%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 16¢ 10¢ $68 $44 −$24 (-35%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 46¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $23 −$5 -22%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$4 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$49 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $79 +$121 +152%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $80 +$800 +998%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $36 +$34 +93%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$80 +388%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$116 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $20 +$24 +119%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $11 +$179 +1567%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $65 +$16 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 −$7 -55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $16 +$2 +12%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $23 +$27 +119%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $22 +$28 +124%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $23 +$27 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 +$4 +27%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $12 +$8 +67%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 12 $13 +$7 +59%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $14 +$6 +42%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 12 $10 +$19 +190%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $112 +$50 +44%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Belinda Bencic Jun 10 $10 $0 -3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $25 +$28 +109%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 10 $16 −$16 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $31 −$31 -99%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Chris Rodesch Jun 10 $7 +$3 +52%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $49 +$28 +57%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $63 −$21 -33%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $19 −$19 -98%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 02 $57 −$30 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 9¢ $21 27m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 14¢ $18 38m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $49 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $23 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 32¢ $98 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 52¢ $151 21h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $151 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $102 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $102 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $102 44h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $43 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 47¢ $29 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 55¢ $5 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 46¢ $2 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $5 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $10 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $27 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $940.72 · official $944.59 (match) · 857 history records