Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:57:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A1 0xa1c6…d2d6 sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$259 (-2%) realized −$210 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%25W / 21L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$612
world 27% −$791
politics 13% +$256
culture 12% +$501
other 1% +$133
finance 1% +$167
crypto 1% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.4% -11.7% 60% 60% -4.5%
≤30d 10 -2.4% -11.7% 60% 60% -4.5%
≤90d 17 -17.0% -24.9% 53% 53% +4.8%
all 46 -8.1% -16.8% 54% 52% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 52% -11.8%
10% -24.8% 46% -20.2%
15% -32.0% 43% -27.9%
20% -38.7% 37% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$147 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$210
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses25 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage124d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Natus Vincere 59¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $43 −$42 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $31 +$22 +71%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 −$49 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 19 $25 +$16 +64%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 19 $25 +$16 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $94 +$30 +32%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $54 +$40 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Stray Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group May 21 $293 +$129 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 12 $52 −$51 -98%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $35 +$26 +73%
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 May 11 $19 −$19 -99%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $1,432 +$256 +18%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Mar 23 $78 −$78 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Mar 23 $152 −$152 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Mar 23 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 23 $134 +$167 +124%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 16 $134 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 16 $5 +$5 +91%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 16 $116 +$14 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 16 $5 +$5 +99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Shpilit - Game 2 Winner Mar 16 $79 +$31 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 16 $41 +$38 +94%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 16 $1,971 +$58 +3%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $1,337 +$501 +38%
Will Team Yandex win PGL Wallachia Season 7? Mar 15 $150 +$133 +88%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 15 $261 +$235 +90%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Mar 15 $645 −$645 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Mar 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Mar 15 $490 +$456 +93%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Mar 15 $300 +$190 +63%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 15 $154 +$157 +102%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Mar 15 $275 −$275 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Mar 15 $228 +$47 +20%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 10 $227 −$227 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Mar 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Mar 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 09 $164 +$160 +98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner Mar 09 $100 +$64 +64%
Dota 2: OG vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 09 $180 −$180 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 21 $284 −$284 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 20 $564 −$564 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $25 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $25 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 70¢ $23 28h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 57¢ $20 28h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $53 28h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 67¢ $20 29h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 46¢ $11 31h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $25 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $26 3d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $42 3d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $41 3d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $25 4d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $124 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $94 4d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 57¢ $54 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 33d
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Stray Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group BUY Nix Team 75¢ $93 33d
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Stray Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group BUY Nix Team 67¢ $45 33d
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Stray Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group BUY Nix Team 67¢ $67 33d
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Stray Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group BUY Nix Team 67¢ $56 33d
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Stray Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group BUY Nix Team 67¢ $20 33d
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Stray Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group BUY Nix Team 67¢ $12 33d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Heroic 53¢ $4 42d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 46¢ $52 42d
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 53¢ $19 42d
Avalanche vs. Wild BUY Avalanche 57¢ $35 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 118 history records