Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A1 0xa1c6…e8f0 crypto 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$94 (+7%) realized +$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%37W / 25L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days+$124
14 days+$124
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$99
sports 7% −$47
other 3% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +1.5% -8.2% 63% 63% -0.9%
≤30d 62 -2.1% -11.4% 60% 60% -3.8%
≤90d 62 -2.1% -11.4% 60% 60% -3.8%
all 62 -2.1% -11.4% 60% 60% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 60% -3.8%
10% -19.9% 56% -13.0%
15% -27.6% 52% -21.4%
20% -34.7% 27% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$16 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses37 / 25
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage16d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$13 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $50 +$40 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $30 −$29 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$24 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$8 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$10 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 29 $30 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$15 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$14 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$9 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$16 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $40 +$28 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $30 −$18 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$14 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$15 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $35 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$14 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$10 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$22 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$17 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$17 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$8 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $38 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $15 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $30 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $74 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $40 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $20 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $50 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $25 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $30 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $23 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $24 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records