Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:01:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1cb…af17 weather 871 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$284 (+5%) realized +$273 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate25%218W / 638L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days+$119
14 days+$194
30 days+$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 79% +$213
sports 13% −$52
world 5% −$6
politics 2% −$15
other 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 +5.9% -4.2% 14% 14% +12.0%
≤30d 302 +7.0% -3.2% 16% 16% -3.3%
≤90d 856 -1.9% -11.2% 25% 17% -7.8%
all 856 -1.9% -11.2% 25% 17% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 17% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 15% -16.6%
15% -27.5% 14% -24.6%
20% -34.6% 13% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$4 · ×3.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$273
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses218 / 638
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions15
Markets (closed)856 / 871
History coverage84d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 856 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Yes 15¢ 32¢ $6 $13 +$7 (+117%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Yes 5¢ 39¢ $1 $10 +$8 (+654%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 22? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 22? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 22? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 22? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 22? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 22? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-60%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 21? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 22? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $6 +$28 +451%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $6 +$23 +379%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 +$10 +424%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 20? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 20? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 +$23 +361%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 19? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$3 -60%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 +$23 +319%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 +$38 +1161%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 22? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 5m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 25m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL Yes 92¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 22 BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 21? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 21? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 21? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 21? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.37 · official $76.37 (match) · 3039 history records