Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:24:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A1
0xa1cc…6171
weather · 136 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$206 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$313 · open +$108
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$333
Realized−$313
Unrealized+$108
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses53 / 81
Open positions2
Markets (closed)134 / 136
Avg bet$28
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 134 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days−$81
14 days−$329
30 days−$313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Yes 65¢ 98¢ $222 $333 +$111 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $124 +$66 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$7 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 +$38 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 −$9 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 −$8 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $31 −$19 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $207 +$48 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $62 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $27 +$13 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $64 +$13 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $81 +$24 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$3 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 9? Jun 10 $47 −$36 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $152 +$29 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 +$47 +443%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $47 +$37 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 −$5 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $15 −$2 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 8? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $91 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $94 +$38 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $46 −$22 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$4 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $47 −$7 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$6 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$2 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $21 −$9 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$7 +623%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 7? Jun 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$2 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $215 −$215 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $14 +$9 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $119 +$34 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 6? Jun 07 $26 −$15 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 98% −$189
world 2% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 82¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 79¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 76¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 61¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 55¢ $29 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $82 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $108 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 79¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $80 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -9.1% -17.8% 30% 30% -12.9%
≤30d 134 -12.6% -20.9% 40% 34% -17.4%
≤90d 134 -12.6% -20.9% 40% 34% -17.4%
all 134 -12.6% -20.9% 40% 34% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 34% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 25% -25.3%
15% -35.4% 17% -32.5%
20% -41.7% 13% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.10 · official $333.10 (match) · 571 history records