Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:49:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1cf…c0cd world 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate36%33W / 59L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$6
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$9
other 23% $0
politics 13% −$1
sports 8% $0
crypto 3% +$1
finance 2% +$13
economics 1% $0
tech 0% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.0% -6.8% 44% 11% -9.4%
≤30d 25 +1.9% -7.8% 36% 12% -9.4%
≤90d 70 +0.8% -8.8% 37% 6% -9.4%
all 92 +0.6% -9.0% 36% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 5% -9.3%
10% -17.7% 2% -18.0%
15% -25.6% 1% -25.9%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses33 / 59
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)92 / 96
History coverage446d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 91¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 69¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 69¢ 70¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $87 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $103 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $55 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $123 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $107 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $159 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $211 −$6 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $60 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $33 +$1 +4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $48 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $11 −$3 -31%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $56 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $58 +$13 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $56 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $4 −$1 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 20 $41 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $11 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $56 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 09 $2 $0 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 08 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $70 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $147 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $54 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $66 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $43 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $23 +$3 +12%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $3 $0 -3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $71 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $2 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $13 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $3 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $34 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $25 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $12 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $40 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $7 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $46 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $41 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $41 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $32 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $13 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $20 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $55 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $54 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $9 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $21 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $18 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $55 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $15 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $35 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $50 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.52 · official $45.50 · 440 history records