Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1d2…d025 other 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate14%14W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$5
politics 21% −$2
sports 6% −$17
culture 4% $0
world 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 +6.3% -3.8% 14% 10% -9.8%
all 100 +6.3% -3.8% 14% 10% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 10% -9.8%
10% -13.0% 10% -18.5%
15% -21.4% 10% -26.3%
20% -29.1% 10% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses14 / 86
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage88d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $94 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $95 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $77 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $84 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $84 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $350 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $78 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $83 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 05 $78 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $237 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $250 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $77 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $85 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $82 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $80 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 01 $84 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $83 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $163 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $124 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $81 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $83 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $83 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $160 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $84 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $79 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $82 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $82 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $79 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $168 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 12 $85 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $81 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $83 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $169 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 11 $85 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $160 $0 -0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Apr 10 $88 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $88 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $15 3d
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $12 3d
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $2 4d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $15 4d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $15 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 10d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 10d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 11d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 11d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 21d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 21d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 21d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $14 22d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $14 22d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $14 26d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $14 26d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 27d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 27d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $33 28d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 29d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 29d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $77 32d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $77 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $76 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.22 · official $50.22 (match) · 257 history records