Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:18:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1d3…0d63 crypto 1323 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$421 (-1%) realized −$421 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate80%1074W / 265L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$378
7 days−$506
14 days−$590
30 days−$552
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$748
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 -14.0% -22.2% 74% 36% -20.1%
≤30d 1043 -3.1% -12.4% 78% 48% -12.5%
≤90d 1339 -3.4% -12.6% 80% 42% -13.3%
all 1339 -3.4% -12.6% 80% 42% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 42% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 24% -21.6%
15% -28.6% 10% -29.2%
20% -35.6% 4% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$15 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$421
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses1074 / 265
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1339 / 1323
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1339 Trades
no open positions (246 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $61 +$17 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $40 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $40 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $40 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $41 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $40 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $40 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $40 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $40 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records