Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1d5…1343 crypto 399 markets active 6h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (139 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23,493 (+16%) realized +$23,201 · open +$292
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate57%238W / 178L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$366per market
Trades / day139.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2,197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% +$6,697
finance 39% +$23
other 13% +$580
tech 2% +$331
politics 2% +$55
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (139 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 -16.0% -24.0% 53% 30% -5.2%
≤30d 416 -7.5% -16.3% 57% 36% -4.8%
≤90d 416 -7.5% -16.3% 57% 36% -4.8%
all 416 -7.5% -16.3% 57% 36% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover139.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 36% -4.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 25% -13.9%
15% -31.6% 18% -22.2%
20% -38.3% 10% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$67 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$2,197
Realized+$23,201
Unrealized+$292
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses238 / 178
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)416 / 399
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$366
Trades / day139.3
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 416 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Yes 84¢ 97¢ $1,904 $2,196 +$292 (+15%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 88¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$41 -1485%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$95 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $105 −$142 -135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -339%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $205 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$55 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$40 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $630 +$34 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $130 −$13 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $208 +$32 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$17 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $627 +$110 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $312 +$58 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$25 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $673 +$417 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$10 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $53 −$32 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $626 −$69 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $312 +$62 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $318 +$117 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $131 −$18 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $237 −$18 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $166 +$41 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$46 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $522 −$44 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $470 +$25 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $206 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $624 +$49 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL Yes 94¢ $187 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 88¢ $866 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL Yes 85¢ $605 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,129 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 80¢ $106 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 75¢ $178 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 76¢ $385 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $204 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $96 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $65 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $8 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $42 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $13 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,197.42 · official $2,197.42 (match) · 3500 history records